Will AI replace restaurant workers? What BLS projects through 2035

The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects that most restaurant jobs will grow from 2025 to 2035. Restaurant cooks lead at 12%, and fast food and counter workers add about 223,000 jobs. The declines are in food preparation workers, short-order cooks and cashiers. BLS's new AI exposure ratings put hosts and cashiers in its "High" group and restaurant cooks, fast-food cooks, counter workers and servers in "Moderate". BLS says an exposure rating is not a forecast of job loss.

This page sets out what BLS published in August 2026, which tasks restaurants have handed to AI and kiosks according to the companies involved, and what that means for your schedule and training. For where chains use AI today, see our guide to AI in fast food.

What does BLS project for restaurant jobs?

BLS released its 2025 to 2035 Employment Projections on August 27, 2026. The table below comes from its AI exposure table, which pairs each occupation's projection with its exposure rating, and from the Occupational Outlook Handbook. BLS computes the change from unrounded figures. The cashier row covers every industry, including grocery stores and gas stations.

Occupation	Jobs, 2025	Projected, 2035	Change	Openings a year	AI exposure
Cooks, restaurant	1,417,500	1,588,800	+171,400 (12.1%)	218,600	Moderate
Cooks, fast food	640,500	644,100	+3,600 (0.6%)	86,400	Moderate
Cooks, short order	138,700	131,500	−7,200 (−5.2%)	17,400	Low
Food preparation workers	908,500	881,300	−27,200 (−3.0%)	135,700	Low
Fast food and counter workers	3,855,900	4,079,100	+223,300 (5.8%)	827,400	Moderate
Waiters and waitresses	2,284,400	2,330,900	+46,500 (2.0%)	423,100	Moderate
Hosts and hostesses	444,200	459,500	+15,300 (3.4%)	107,100	High
Cashiers, all industries	3,106,300	2,905,700	−200,600 (−6.5%)	521,300	High
Supervisors of food preparation and serving workers	1,236,400	1,303,500	+67,100 (5.4%)	171,500	High

The shrinking jobs still have openings. BLS projects about 135,700 a year for food preparation workers and 521,300 for cashiers, all of them to replace workers who move to other jobs or leave the labor force.

Why does BLS expect some jobs to shrink?

The Handbook gives a reason for each job, and only one of them names restaurant technology.

• Waiters and waitresses: BLS expects reduced need "due to increases in the use of self-service technology, such as kiosks that allow customers to order and pay for food, and in carryout." It still projects 2% growth, slower than average.
• Cashiers: BLS points to self-service checkout stands in retail stores and online sales.
• Food preparation workers: BLS says restaurants may order prewashed, precut or preseasoned ingredients, and some prefer fast food and counter workers who both prepare and serve food.
• Short-order cooks: BLS says more versatile restaurant cooks are replacing them.
• Cooks and serving staff overall: BLS expects people to keep eating out, buying takeout and ordering delivery, with new restaurants opening to meet that demand.

What does an AI exposure rating mean?

BLS built its four groups (Low, Moderate, High and Very high) from five outside sources. Three score how well AI could do or assist an occupation's tasks in theory. Two map observed AI use to those tasks, one of them Anthropic's data on how people use Claude. A "High" rating means that, compared with other jobs, more of the job's tasks could be done or assisted by AI.

BLS lists what the rating does not mean. It is not a forecast of employment, wages or AI adoption, and it is not an estimate of how many workers would be replaced. A "Low" rating does not make a job safe from change. The rating also does not separate AI that does a task from AI that helps a worker do it.

Read the table with that in mind. Hosts are rated "High" and projected to grow 3.4%. Food preparation workers are rated "Low" and projected to shrink, for the reasons BLS gives above: precut ingredients and counter workers who both prep and serve.

Which tasks have AI and kiosks taken on so far?

Company releases describe specific tasks, with staff working alongside.

• Taking drive-thru orders. In May 2025, Wendy's said its FreshAI drive-thru assistant had grown from a pilot in two states in 2024 to a nationwide rollout, processing tens of thousands of orders a day. Wendy's says it frees team members to focus on customers. Our tracker of chains using AI at the drive-thru lists others with dates.
• Kitchen prep. In September 2024, Chipotle began testing Autocado, which cuts, cores and peels avocados, and an automated makeline that builds bowls and salads while employees make burritos, tacos and quesadillas on the top line. Each ran in one California restaurant. Our restaurant robots tracker covers others, including shutdowns.
• Ordering and paying at a kiosk. This is the change BLS names for servers. Our kiosk or cashier guide has a worksheet for deciding whether a kiosk fits your counter.
• Answering the phone. Phone agents such as Maple's, described below, answer questions, take orders and book tables, and transfer other calls to staff.

What does this mean for scheduling and training?

When a tool takes over one task, staff still watch it and handle what it cannot. The table below is our suggestion for planning that work. It is not a BLS finding.

Task handed to a tool	What still needs a person	Schedule or training change
Phone answering and orders	Transfers, complaints, changes to paid orders, callbacks	Name who takes transferred calls on each shift, and a backup when they are busy
Kiosk ordering	Guests who need help, payment problems, cash	Put someone within reach of the kiosks at peak, and train every counter worker on the help screen
Drive-thru order taking	Taking over the lane, checking the order screen, handing out food	Train every crew member to switch the lane back to a person, and practice it before each busy week
Prep machines	Loading, cleaning, checking output	Add cleaning and check time to the prep list, and train two people per machine
Forecasts and schedule suggestions	Knowing about events, weather and staff limits	Have the manager review the draft schedule against the week's events before posting it

Before and after any change, track labor hours by task for the same weeks. Our guides to labor cost percentage and restaurant turnover show how to measure the rest.

Where does Maple fit?

Maple sells AI phone answering and ordering. Voice answers calls with hours and FAQ answers and transfers calls to staff. Pro adds phone orders into supported POS systems and reservations. Its drive-thru and kiosk units are in early access with a small number of restaurants. Both leave staff in control: the drive-thru unit has a one-press switch that returns the lane to the crew, and every kiosk screen has a staff-help button. Plan the handoffs in the table above before you add any of them.

Published by Maple, which sells AI phone answering and ordering and has drive-thru and kiosk units in early access. This AI-assisted guide combines BLS 2025 to 2035 Employment Projections, the Occupational Outlook Handbook, BLS AI exposure categories and company releases from Wendy's and Chipotle with an original planning table. It makes no forecast of its own and does not claim that any tool, including Maple's, replaces staff.